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AMERICAN.COM

The Journal of the American Enterprise Institute

Searching for Free Markets in Latin America

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Leaders may ignore reality, but open trade is both desirable and necessary for the region.

An anti-globalization wave has been blazing across Latin America. Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, whose headline-grabbing rhetoric only became fierier after his recent re-election, hasn't missed an opportunity to highlight the alleged evils of capitalism. Bolivian president Evo Morales has voiced a similar script, and so have a score of other presidential candidates in the region. Some have lostOllanta Humala in Peru and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexicoand others have somehow managed to come back from the shadowsDaniel Ortega in Nicaragua.

But despite the fiery rhetoric, often used to boost popularity among the poor, the economic realities of the region indicate that trade across borders remains both desirable and necessary. It is clear that Latin American economies are intertwined with foreign markets, and particularly the U.S.

In 2005, for example, the U.S. received nearly 15 percent of Chilean exports. More conspicuously, the U.S. accounted for roughly 63 percent of Venezuela's total market abroad. Based on forecasts, some of the largest Latin American economies combinedBrazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuelaare expected to attract foreign investments worth $47.5 billion this year, increasing investments by 11.5 percent in comparison with last year.

The real question for Latin America is whether the dividends derived from trade will be available for the poor, who can only benefit if they gain access to the market.
There is a major gap between the political rhetoric of some leaders and the world they are forced to inhabit. Latin American economies have to live in the inescapable reality of an intertwined world in which economic and commercial relations are a given. Ignoring this reality will not bring about revolutions from thin air. It will simply hurt the country's performance and ultimately diminish the conditions for growing and generating wealth. 

Leaders in the region will have to make choices on whether to work with the realities of globalized economies or try to turn their backs on it. With the recent renewal of Andean trade preferences for only six months, it is crucial to think of long-term trade relations with the U.S—and other countries. Colombia and Peru have already been moving forward with free trade agreements. Those who remain in the anti-globalization bloc, however, may soon see their economies plummeting even further.

Sliver of Sun of San Juan del Sur by Flickr user thombo2The real question for Latin America isn't whether trade and open markets are good or even necessary. It is rather whether the dividends derived from trade will be available for the poor, who can only benefit if they gain access to the market. Former IMF expert Agustin Carstens believes that the economic challenges in Latin America are well known. Succinctly put, the region needs to "bring about greater reductions in poverty and inequality than have happened in the past."  Nonetheless, combating poverty by attacking cross-border trade and investment itself is like fighting heart disease by campaigning against exercise.            

The script of rabid nationalism and anti-globalization hasn't been exhausted yet. But sooner or later reality will rear its head. Bolivia is currently in the midst of demonstrations, with the wealthiest provinces seeking greater autonomy from the central government, and oil windfalls are bound to decline at some point. After the rhetoric, massive public debts, escalating inflation, and bloated governments will likely lead to financial and social crises, which countries like Argentina have been through already. Those Latin American leaders who decide to ignore the inescapable dynamics of growth only do so at their own peril. And most unfortunately, at their country's as well. 


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