Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory in the French Presidential elections over Socialist Segolene Royal is well-deserved, particularly in light of what Royal embodied: an unwillingness to embrace economic modernity, an unwillingness to consider fundamental reforms to France’s economic model, and a thinly-veiled hostility towards the United States. Sarkozy, in sharp contrast, values the virtue of hard work, the full assimilation of immigrants into French society (economically as well as culturally), closer ties with the United States, and economic reforms destined to bring France into the 21^st century. This last wish will bring Sarkozy great troubles, and his ability to successfully navigate these troubles will define the success or failure of his Presidency.

The enthusiasm of the French for ‘change’ and ‘reform’ may dwindle considerably once they find out what change and reform for France Inc. really mean.

As of yet, Sarkozy’s spirits are high. There are worrying signs, however, that he may be confusing his own wishes and aspirations with those of the French people. Late yesterday, Sarkozy proclaimed that “The people of France have chosen to break with their ideas, habits and behavior of the past,” but in this, he may well be mistaken. There are no indications as of yet that the French are willing to accept, in practice, far-reaching economic reforms. The conservatism of the French public offers a contrast to the willingness of the British public to embrace Thatcherite reforms in the wake of the “winter of discontent” of 1978-1979, when wild strikes left “rubbish [piling high] in the streets” and “bodies lying unburied in mortuaries.”

Like a board of directors bringing in a new, reform-oriented C.E.O., the enthusiasm of the French for “change” and “reform” may dwindle considerably once they find out what change and reform for France Inc. really mean. While Sarkozy’s proposed tax cuts and relaxation of the 35-hour workweek are unlikely to lead to angry protests, “[pushing] through a law in September requiring a minimum level of service by transport workers unless unions negotiate a deal by the end of summer” is sure to set off a storm, as is Sarkozy’s desire to roll back some transport workers' pension benefits. In 1995, Prime Minister Alain Juppé proposed to end the right of railway workers to retire at age 55, a proposal he was quickly forced to retract after massive strikes brought France to the brink of chaos.  Similarly, in 1996, transport unions staged widespread strikes in order to gain the right to retire at age 55—once again, the government caved in, its power to implement fundamental reforms lost.

The publicity-savvy Sarkozy is likely to make effective public outreach a cornerstone of his presidency.

Changing the benefits of transport workers, of course, is not nearly the most controversial aspect of the reforms Sarkozy wants. A fundamental relaxation of rigid French labor laws (not yet proposed by the President-elect) would unleash truly massive protests and disruptions. If implemented, these and other reforms would make France’s social safety net far more durable and long-lasting in an era of competitive economic globalization—but until the French public realizes this, Sarkozy will face an uphill battle in implementing the reforms his country needs.

This is why public outreach will be key. In contrast to Sarkozy’s far more aloof predecessors Mitterrand and Chirac—Presidents who seemed to enjoy staying above the French political fray even as many of their priorities went unrealized—the publicity-savvy Sarkozy is likely to make effective public outreach a cornerstone of his presidency. Sarkozy is neither aloof nor fond of being “above the fray”; instead, like Rudy Giuliani, he has a hands-on approach and takes great personal satisfaction in “getting things done.” For a French President, this is uncommon, but then again, Sarkozy is anything but common in top French political circles. 

If the efficient and tenacious Sarkozy succeeds in curbing the power of unions and institutes reforms that last, he will have not only won an election but also fundamentally altered France’s basic economic model, enabling France to reap the many fruits of economic globalization. As Sarkozy writes in his compelling book Testimony: “France is going through a fundamental crisis of confidence… I’m convinced that no country in the world can get by without effort, and that France—notwithstanding its undeniable merits and prestigious past—will become a thing of the past if it doesn’t take the steps necessary to adapt to the changes taking place in the world.”

Jurgen Reinhoudt is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.