The Election: One Year Out
From the November/December 2007 Issue
Filed under: Numbers

I feel it is my duty as a citizen
to always vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90%
Do not feel that way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8%
Note: In another question in this survey, 64 percent said they felt guilty when they didn’t get a chance to vote. Twenty-eight percent disagreed.
Source: Pew Research Center, December 2006–January 2007.

Election Demographics
In 2004, the electorate was more female than male, more middle-aged than younger or older, and more likely to be married than unmarried. The patterns shown below will likely reappear in 2008.

Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics and the Election
Hispanics have what demographer Bill Frey calls a “translation problem.” Their representation in the general population outweighs their representation in the voting population. Many Hispanics are under age 18, and many are not citizens. In 2004, according to Frey, out of every 100 Hispanics, 40 were voting-age citizens, 23 were likely to be registered to vote, and 18 were likely to show up at the polls. Hispanic representation will increase over time.

Ideologically Conservative, Politically Democratic
As we head into the campaign, Americans tell pollsters that they are more conservative than liberal, but also more Democratic than Republican.
The proportion of pure independents in the population is small. Pollsters ask people first whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Then they ask self-identified independents whether they lean to one party or another. When the leaners are included with the partisans today, slightly more than half of registered voters say they are Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party and 35 percent say they are Republicans or lean to the GOP.

Republican or people who lean to Republican Party . . . . . . 35%
Democrat or people who lean to the Democratic Party . . . . . . .52%
Source: Pew Research Center, January–March 2007.