Demography is, to a certain extent, destiny, and political changes are often foretold and explained by demographic transformations. Generational, religious, geographic, and socioeconomic patterns offer key clues about the politics of tomorrow. Experts in demography, politics, and public opinion spoke at a joint American Enterprise Institute/ Brookings Institution conference this week about how demographic shifts may affect the 2008 election—and many more elections beyond.

Almost all U.S. population growth between now and 2050 will take place in metropolitan areas, especially inner and mature suburbs. While urban cores remain solidly Democratic and exurbs and emerging suburbs remain strongly Republican, said Robert E. Lang of Virginia Tech, the fast-growing “urbanized suburbs” are trending strongly toward the Democrats. “Density equals Democrats,” Lang said. “If the Democrats hold the 2006 gains made in urbanizing suburbs and stay competitive in the metropolitan fringe, the party will win the 2008 elections.”

Americans increasingly tend to live near people with similar cultural and political views, according to Bill Bishop, author of The Big Sort. The number of counties dominated by a single party has increased dramatically over the past 40 years, creating “landslide communities.” Bishop described this effect as “perfectly natural,” and he questioned the extent to which the differences might be transcended. “We hear the talk about the end of partisanship, but we don’t see many people changing neighborhoods.”

Almost all U.S. population growth between now and 2050 will take place in metropolitan areas, especially inner and mature suburbs, which are trending strongly toward the Democrats.

Immigration remains one of the hottest issues in American politics, and Brookings demographer William Frey discussed the education levels, party loyalties, and geographic dispersion of the recent migrants. He commented that Hispanic and Asian population growth is not fully represented in election results because so many of these immigrants are either under the age of 18 or are not citizens.

Another dimension of demographic change is the startling decline of the “white working class.” According to Ruy Teixeira of Brookings and Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, this group has shrunk by 31 percentage points since 1940. Once a bulwark of the Democratic Party, it has become less Democratic as its numbers have declined. However, because several swing states have high concentrations of white working-class voters, this group will be very important in the 2008 election.

Indicators of social, generational, and religious change are mixed. Nontraditional family structures are growing, said the University of Chicago’s Tom W. Smith, and “family values and family structure go together.” Married voters traditionally lean Republican and vote more than others, but their share of the population is decreasing. If family values become more liberal, this will obviously help the Democrats. Indeed, changing family structures—especially increases in divorce—have already helped to shape the political outlook of the “millennial generation” (those born after 1977), which leans strongly Democratic.

But according to Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center, there is an opportunity here for Republicans. While the millennials are more liberal on issues such as immigration, gay marriage, and the size of government, they also tend to be more entrepreneurial and individualistic, favoring private Social Security accounts, for example. Surprisingly, the millennials oppose abortion on demand in greater numbers than any other generation born since 1930.

Religious trends are complex, said John Green of the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. Democrats retain strong support among the religiously unaffiliated, as do Republicans among white evangelicals. Party preference frequently correlates with a person’s degree of observance rather than his or her specific denomination. But Washington Post columnist (and Brookings senior fellow) E.J. Dionne Jr. pointed to “evidence that the ‘culture war’ approach to politics may have abated.”

Several top journalists and analysts offered comments, including AEI’s Michael Barone and David Frum, Ron Brownstein of Atlantic Media, pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, Reihan Salam of The Atlantic, and Mark Schmitt of the New America Foundation. The conference was organized by Brookings's Teixeira and AEI’s Karlyn Bowman. All the presentations will be collected in a Brookings Institution Press book scheduled to appear later this year.

Evan Sparks is an editorial assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.