Hillary Clinton can change her message, change her campaign manager, even change her hairstyle—but she can’t change the delegate math that makes it almost impossible for her to win the Democratic presidential nomination. 

In several ways, recent news has been good to Clinton. She continues to win in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where there are large numbers of white working-class voters.   Arguably, her coalition of white working-class and Hispanic voters is equal to Obama’s coalition of white-collar and African-American voters. Obama has been on the defensive lately, dealing with the continuing problem of his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and trying to explain his own comments that “bitter” blue-collar workers often “cling” to religion and guns instead of voting their economic interests. These two episodes—the Reverend Wright fiasco and “bitter-gate”—have revealed some chinks in Obama’s armor. 

But the problem for Clinton is that Obama has a clear lead in delegates and that, short of a sudden Obama collapse, there are not enough delegates left for her to pull even, never mind pull into the lead. 

Here is the math. There are 4,048 total delegates. You need 2,025 to win the nomination. Of those delegates, about 80 percent are selected in primaries and caucuses by voters, and 20 percent are the so-called superdelegates—party leaders and elected officials who get to vote by virtue of their position. As of today, Clinton and Obama are almost tied in endorsements by superdelegates, but Obama holds a lead in the elected delegates. Using the New York Times’s count, Obama has 1,735 delegates (a combined total of elected delegates and superdelegates) to Clinton’s 1,601. 

Looking ahead, there are eight contests in states or territories which will select about 400 delegates by June 3. There are also around 250 uncommitted superdelegates. The most likely scenario is that Clinton and Obama will split the remaining 400 elected delegates equally. North Carolina is likely to go for Obama. Indiana and West Virginia favor Clinton and, added together, they have nearly the same number of delegates as North Carolina. Later in May, you have Kentucky (51 delegates), which favors Clinton, and Oregon (52 delegates), which favors Obama. Puerto Rico is likely to go for Clinton, but Obama is likely to win the last two western states, Montana and South Dakota (so far, he has won all of the mountain and plains states). 

If we assume a 50-50 split of these delegates, then Obama will be at 1,935 and Clinton at 1,801. Obama will only need the support of about one-quarter of the remaining superdelegates to get the nomination. These superdelegates are likely to move in Obama’s direction as long as he maintains his lead. 

Clinton’s best hope is for an Obama collapse: some event or series of events that causes voters and Democratic superdelegates to decide that Obama is unelectable in the general election. With such a collapse, Clinton might be able to get close in the delegate count and then persuade superdelegates to throw the nomination to her. 

Clinton's best hope is for an Obama collapse: something that causes voters and Democratic superdelegates to decide that Obama is unelectable in the general election.

Is there any way Clinton could win without a complete Obama implosion? Might she surprise in a number of states, build up momentum, win a string of contests, and pull close enough that she could still be the nominee? The answer is probably no. 

Here is my best shot at giving Clinton a strong finish to the primary season (and even this scenario leaves her 60 or 70 delegates short). 

Let’s assume that Clinton wins Indiana by 10 percentage points and also scores a narrow upset victory in North Carolina. The Indiana win might bring her a net gain of 8 delegates. A Clinton win in North Carolina is likely to be extremely narrow; at most, it might give her a net gain of 2 delegates, but it would force people to look more seriously at her chances. 

The next contest is West Virginia. There has been virtually no polling on the West Virginia primary, but neighboring Kentucky has some kinship with the Mountain State. Both states have a relatively small African-American population and high numbers of rural and white working-class voters. In Kentucky, Clinton has led in some polls by more than 35 percentage points. So let’s give West Virginia to Clinton with a generous 70-30 victory. That would yield her about 12 delegates more than Obama. 

The following week, Kentucky and Oregon vote. Give Clinton a 70-30 win in Kentucky, which would net her another 20 delegates. Oregon should be an Obama state, but not everyone in the state works as a barista in a high-end coffee shop. There are plenty of rural and working-class voters—including many loggers and timber workers—who could go for Clinton. If we are very generous, with the trend in Clinton’s direction, she might be able to win a modest victory in Oregon. Let’s give her a big 10-point win and a net of 6 more delegates. 

If all of this occurs (which is exceedingly unlikely), and if no superdelegates make endorsements in the meantime (also highly unlikely), then Clinton will have cut Obama’s lead by 50 delegates and will trail by only 80 to 90 delegates. Then comes the big prize of Puerto Rico, which has 55 elected delegates. By all accounts Clinton should win in Puerto Rico: she has done well among Hispanic voters, and there is a large Puerto Rican population in her home state of New York, where she has been elected to the Senate twice. The limited public polling on the race shows a modest lead for Clinton. But let’s give her a very big 65-35 win and a gain of 17 delegates. Then Clinton goes into the final two states of Montana and South Dakota—states that Obama should win—and with her momentum, she wins each by a 55-45 margin, netting her 4 delegates overall. 

Even if this extremely unlikely scenario somehow played out, Clinton would still trail by 60 or 70 delegates. Her string of late victories might be enough to persuade some superdelegates to support her. But even an underperforming Obama would still be able to argue that he won a plurality of elected delegates. (And indeed, he had his own streak of 11 straight primary and caucus wins after Super Tuesday.) Ultimately, it will be very difficult for a supermajority of the remaining superdelegates to throw the nomination to Clinton if Obama still leads in elected delegates and is not "damaged goods."

So if you are a Clinton supporter, you should hope that Clinton wins in North Carolina and Indiana today and takes her momentum to the other states. But for her to win the nomination, you should hope for the killer Obama scandal, the knockout punch that makes him appear totally unelectable. Short of that, Clinton will trail in the delegate count in early June—and Obama will be the Democratic nominee. 

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Photograph by Getty Images.