WINNIPEG—Last week’s Canadian federal election resulted in little change. The incumbent Conservative Party picked up 19 parliamentary seats, but still lacks a majority. At the same time, none of the three main opposition parties—the center-left Liberal Party, the socialist New Democratic Party (NDP), and the separatist Bloc Québécois (BQ)—are in a position to challenge the Conservatives by forming a coalition government.

Had the election been held a few weeks earlier, the Conservatives might well have won a majority. Prior to the meltdown on Wall Street, Prime Minister Stephen Harper had been building momentum. This momentum was scuttled by the financial crisis—the Toronto Stock Exchange suffered its worst day ever—even though Harper argued persuasively that Canada’s economy is relatively secure.

The prime minister was right to emphasize his record in the face of widespread fears. If anything, economic uncertainty should have boosted the Conservative vote. Harper is a former economist, and he has managed the economy quite well as prime minister. The Liberal Party campaigned on new carbon and consumption taxes, and the NDP pledged to raise Canada’s corporate tax rate, already among the highest in the world.

The Liberals, led by former academic Stéphane Dion, were the clear losers of the election. Their share of the popular vote dropped to barely a quarter—the party’s worst showing in history—and their seat count in Parliament plummeted from 95 to 76 (out of 308 seats overall). For the first time, the Liberals won fewer seats than the NDP and BQ did combined.

After three general elections in four years, nobody in Canada is eager for another one anytime soon. The opposition parties will be extremely reluctant to trigger an election, since doing so would probably backfire.

Why have they fallen so far? Dion must shoulder some of the blame. He became the compromise choice for party leader after Bob Rae, the ex-premier of Ontario, and Michael Ignatieff, a former Harvard professor, waged a bitter struggle for the top post. It is hard to imagine Dion as a credible prime minister. His English is not only heavily accented, but also frequently ungrammatical. This limits his appeal outside of Quebec. Not surprisingly, Dion has agreed to step down following the party’s leadership convention in May.

The Liberals have also been hurt by the increasing popularity of the NDP and the Green Party, the latter which has finally become a national party, albeit a small one. Despite Green leader Elizabeth May’s last-minute plea for party members to vote Liberal (in order to thwart the Conservatives), the Greens garnered almost 7 percent of the vote, although not a single parliamentary seat. The BQ won 10 percent of the vote and captured 50 seats; it also effectively denied Harper a majority by preventing Conservative gains in Quebec. As for the NDP, it made significant progress in Ontario and may soon become a major player in Canadian national politics.

Voter turnout was only 59 percent, the lowest ever recorded in a federal election. What explains that? Among other things, it’s worth noting that the national Conservative Party has recently ignored social issues such as same-sex marriage (which is legal in Canada, though uncommon) and abortion (which is available at any stage of a pregnancy and is paid for with tax dollars). This has left many Conservative “values voters” feeling snubbed, and some may have stayed home on Election Day. (Tensions among social conservatives, populists, and libertarians have long riven the Canadian right, and the wounds caused by the splintering of the former Progressive Conservative Party in the 1990s have not fully healed.)

Will the Harper-led Conservatives ever achieve a parliamentary majority? In 2006, amid a massive Liberal Party corruption scandal, Harper managed to win only a minority. This year, despite heading a party whose strong economic record should have been an asset in troubled times, and despite running against a particularly inept opposition leader, the prime minister succeeded only in winning a larger plurality. He indicated early in the campaign that he would resign if he lost this election. It now seems unlikely that Harper will step down, even though failing to secure a majority will be construed as a defeat.

However disappointed he may be, Harper should be able to govern as if he had a majority. After three general elections in four years, nobody in Canada is eager for another one anytime soon. The opposition parties will be extremely reluctant to trigger an election, since doing so would anger voters and probably backfire. Despite a costly and intense campaign, remarkably little has changed, which will only fuel a growing sense of apathy and cynicism among the Canadian electorate.

Rebecca Walberg is a policy analyst at Canada’s Frontier Centre for Public Policy. The views expressed here are her own.

Image by The Bergman Group/Dianna Ingram.