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So How Is the Stimulus Working Out? Part II

Saturday, January 23, 2010

If not for the mass exit of workers from the labor force, unemployment numbers would look even worse.

In October, I showed that while the stimulus funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act were being spent, the unemployment rate kept going up. In fact, the 10.2 percent unemployment rate then was already far above the 8.8 percent the Obama administration said was the maximum rate America would reach without a stimulus.

Today, I want to add to the evidence showing President Obama’s promise to create jobs with his administration’s spending is full of hot air.

Using data from the administration’s website Recovery.gov and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this accompanying chart shows the monthly increase in the number of unemployed workers and the shrinkage of the civilian labor force in tandem with the administration’s stimulus spending. In other words, it shows how not only that many workers have lost their jobs since the administration started spending stimulus funds, but also that many more workers have exited the labor market. The civilian labor force shrinks when individuals who were looking for work or were employed decide that their labor market prospects are not good enough to keep looking for a job or to stay employed. For instance, some people might decide to go to grad school instead of keeping a poorly paid job, while others might decide to not seek a job and instead stay home with their kids. One reason for the shrinkage could be that the current economic state is so bad that workers feel it is not worth their time and energy to keep looking for a job when there is no hope in sight.

de rugy 1.22.10

Two things are sure. First, if it weren’t for workers’ mass exit from the labor force (600,000 workers exited in December alone), the unemployment numbers would look even worse that they already do. Second, government spending cannot create jobs.

Veronique de Rugy is a senior research fellow at The Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

FURTHER READING: De Rugy regularly illustrates the follies of government spending for THE AMERICAN. She recently explained “The High Cost of No Price” for healthcare. “Why Reform Will Cost Taxpayers More, Much More” looks at some of our recent cost overruns in government-driven medical spending. The author explains the “State of the Stimulus,” how “The Jobs Picture Crashes Into Debt Realities,” and offers “A Peek Inside the Deficit.” And AEI’s John Makin reviewed the U.S. economy and government policy in “Post Crisis Risks.”

Image by Darren Wamboldt/Bergman Group.

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