The conventional wisdom that presidents tend to suffer serious losses in Senate elections in their sixth year in office is less elucidating than it might first appear, although it does appear likely that the Democrats will lose the Senate this year.
The 2012 election indicates that the fault lines in American politics are the same as they have been since the mid 1990s, but surprises may be in store for the future.
If you look at the map of the states where McGovern ran ahead of his national average, you see something very much like the map of the states carried by Obama.
We shouldn’t assume that the political alignment of the last decade will be permanent. It may even change significantly in the next election, with quite a few states dropping out of one of the red, purple, or blue categories and moving into another.
The popular vote for the House and the president have converged. Here’s what it means for Obama’s chances in 2012.
After the Republican disaster of 2008, some conservative intellectuals hoped the party would try to gain support from educated elites. The 2010 election shows that GOP gains came from almost all parts of the electorate except the elite.
The failures of the two parties to achieve the dominant status their strategists hoped for and predicted has been due in large part to their basic character.
This year’s Republican success will likely prove to be no more permanent than the 2006–2008 Democratic successes were.
Will Republicans gain the net 40 seats they need for a majority in the House? Several factors will certainly help.
We are once again—as in the days of the early republic and not in the heyday of the Progressives and the New Dealers—a republic of property owners.
It’s more perilous for an incumbent to be a Democrat than a Republican this year, in primaries as well as in the general election.
The large domestic outflow from coastal metropolises is disturbing, and suggests a vote of no-confidence in our formerly fastest-growing metro areas.
It is interesting to look back at the biggest Republican victory of the last 80 years, the off-year election of 1946. What’s similar and what’s different today?
The old saying that Americans have been moving from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt fails to capture either what has been happening from 1990 to the onset of the current recession in 2007 or what is happening today.
Factory and mill town Massachusetts responded very differently to last week’s Senate election than ‘educated class’ Massachusetts, swinging sharply to Republican Scott Brown.
What’s striking about British politics is the infrequency of changes in government from one party to another. This is less true in the United States. Why the difference?
A lot of attention has been given to the results of the November 3 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. But another recent election, in Pennsylvania, also deserves attention.
The correlation between religious and moral values and voting behavior did not operate a generation ago.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s recent announcement on the nation’s foreign-born percentage of the population may prove a landmark in American demographic history.
On Capitol Hill, Democrats are much more beholden to their base than are Republicans.