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Articles by Michael Barone

2014 Midterms: Another Six-Year Senate Sweep? Friday, July 11, 2014
The conventional wisdom that presidents tend to suffer serious losses in Senate elections in their sixth year in office is less elucidating than it might first ...
The Almanac of American Politics: Breaking Down the 2012 Election Thursday, August 15, 2013
The 2012 election indicates that the fault lines in American politics are the same as they have been since the mid 1990s, but surprises may be in store for the ...
From McGovern to Obama Monday, October 22, 2012
If you look at the map of the states where McGovern ran ahead of his national average, you see something very much like the map of the states carried by Obama.
States Aren’t Red or Blue Forever Tuesday, March 13, 2012
We shouldn’t assume that the political alignment of the last decade will be permanent. It may even change significantly in the next election, with quite a few ...
How to Understand Obama’s Chances in 2012 Thursday, July 21, 2011
The popular vote for the House and the president have converged. Here’s what it means for Obama’s chances in 2012.
Does the GOP Need the Educated Class? Thursday, December 2, 2010
After the Republican disaster of 2008, some conservative intellectuals hoped the party would try to gain support from educated elites. The 2010 election shows ...
The Enduring Character of Democrats and Republicans in Times of Political Change Saturday, October 16, 2010
The failures of the two parties to achieve the dominant status their strategists hoped for and predicted has been due in large part to their basic character.
America in an Age of Open Field Politics Tuesday, September 28, 2010
This year’s Republican success will likely prove to be no more permanent than the 2006–2008 Democratic successes were.
The Democrats Have a Concentration Problem Saturday, July 31, 2010
Will Republicans gain the net 40 seats they need for a majority in the House? Several factors will certainly help.
The Return of the Jeffersonian Vision and the Rejection of Progressivism Tuesday, July 13, 2010
We are once again—as in the days of the early republic and not in the heyday of the Progressives and the New Dealers—a republic of property owners.
More Anti-Democrat than Anti-Incumbent Friday, May 28, 2010
It’s more perilous for an incumbent to be a Democrat than a Republican this year, in primaries as well as in the general election.
The Coastal Conundrum Saturday, May 15, 2010
The large domestic outflow from coastal metropolises is disturbing, and suggests a vote of no-confidence in our formerly fastest-growing metro areas.
What 1946 Can Tell Us About 2010 Tuesday, April 6, 2010
It is interesting to look back at the biggest Republican victory of the last 80 years, the off-year election of 1946. What’s similar and what’s different ...
How the Recession Has Changed American Migration Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The old saying that Americans have been moving from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt fails to capture either what has been happening from 1990 to the onset of the ...
Massachusetts: ‘the Educated Class’ versus the People Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Factory and mill town Massachusetts responded very differently to last week’s Senate election than ‘educated class’ Massachusetts, swinging sharply to ...
Why Do Parties Last Longer in Britain? Wednesday, January 6, 2010
What’s striking about British politics is the infrequency of changes in government from one party to another. This is less true in the United States. Why the ...
A Keystone Election Tuesday, December 22, 2009
A lot of attention has been given to the results of the November 3 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. But another recent election, in ...
Delayed Childbearing and Voting Behavior Tuesday, November 17, 2009
The correlation between religious and moral values and voting behavior did not operate a generation ago.
An Immigration Tipping Point? Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The U.S. Census Bureau’s recent announcement on the nation’s foreign-born percentage of the population may prove a landmark in American demographic history.
Republicans and Democrats: A Tale of Two Bases Tuesday, September 15, 2009
On Capitol Hill, Democrats are much more beholden to their base than are Republicans.
The GOP's Real Problems for 2012 Tuesday, June 30, 2009
The Ensign and Sanford scandals are beside the point. The Republican Party is going to have a hard time coming up with a strong presidential nominee in 2012.
No Bed of Roses for Democrats in the Garden State Friday, June 5, 2009
The outlook is good for Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor’s race.
Il Cavaliere Rides Again Sunday, April 20, 2008
Silvio Berlusconi has won a third term as Italy’s prime minister. His victory may have important consequences.
Present at the Destruction Friday, February 8, 2008
An eyewitness story of the 1967 riot: how programs that were supposed to create a heaven turned Detroit into a hell.
It’s the Partisan Economy, Stupid Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Americans’ views of macroeconomic trends are increasingly a product of their political leanings, writes MICHAEL BARONE.